Which teams are finding the most value in MLS contracts?

In this article, I build on my earlier analysis by shifting focus to the team level, exploring which teams are making the smartest investments in non-designated players (DP).

Difference Between Actual and Predicted (Non-DP) Spending

As highlighted in the heading of this article, the accompanying chart examines teams that have either overspent—paying more for contracts than the model predicts—or underspent—paying less than expected (a positive outcome). Ideally, a team should strive to be positioned as far to the left and as high above the dotted line as possible. This position indicates that quality players are outperforming their contracts relative to their salaries.

Note: When I refer to salary cap, I am talking about non-DP players. Also, when I refer to players, I am talking about players without the DP tag (this is something I will investigate in a later article though).

Looking at the chart below, there are several key points that I can take away:

1) Outperforming your spending on non-DP players has little to no correlation with achieving a successful season

There is little relationship between making the playoffs and outperforming a team’s spending this season. While you could argue that beyond a certain threshold of $3.5M, there appears to be a relationship between playoff qualification and narrowing the gap between actual and predicted spending, this take requires further back testing (perhaps a task for a future project).

However, looking at year on year trends (blue below), there’s little evidence of a strong connection between spending efficiency and winning (points per match). This is really interesting because it suggests that even with smart decision-making and acquiring talent at a bargain, because of the complicated nature and the abundance of factors within our game, this does not reflect a higher point total.

With total spending (orange above), the unique competitive balance of MLS becomes clear. Historically, teams who have spent more of their salary cap in MLS have surprisingly performed worse. This points to the competitive balance within MLS that spending does not equate to wins and that there are so many factors than just spending or even spending efficiently that contribute to winning matches. However, the Crew have been a notable exception this season, demonstrating that strategic spending within the salary cap can deliver positive results. Perhaps this a blueprint that more teams will take on? Time will tell.

In a later article, we will see that there is a relationship with team spend on DP contracts, which speaks to another direction that MLS could be heading in.

2) The Crew and Inter Miami: Opposites but still successful?

Miami:

Despite having Messi and other marquee players such as Luis Suárez and Jordi Alba, Inter Miami have been very productive with their non-DP signings and homegrown players. Marcelo Weigandt stands out as an under the radar signing, playing nearly 2,000 minutes this year.

Furthermore, the quartet of Benjamin Cremaschi (homegrown), Noah Allen (homegrown), Yannick Bright (superdraft rookie), and David Ruiz (homegrown), showcased in the cluster below, makes a combined $332,000 while playing a total of 4,560 minutes. That’s why they are one of the most overperforming teams with my model and it shows that even with Messi, the growth of these young homegrown/draft picks has been huge for Miami’s success this season with winning the Supporter’s Shield - the award for most points in a season.

The Crew:

While the Crew don’t have Messi and aren’t a big market team within MLS, they’ve focused on acquiring and investing in non-DP players. They currently have the highest salary in MLS, a status partly influenced by Aidan Morris being recorded as a Crew player (though he has since transferred to Middlesbrough in the Championship). Even without Morris, the Crew would remain among the teams with the highest non-DP salary budgets in MLS.

The Crew’s slight underperformance can be attributed mostly to three players: Andrés Herrera, Yaw Yeboah, and Marino Hinestroza. Herrera, a midseason loan acquisition, has struggled to make an impact, logging just 472 minutes and costing the Crew approximately $450,000 based on my model. With a buy option attached to the loan, it remains to be seen whether the Crew will exercise it (though it seems unlikely).

Yeboah had a great 2023 season, including scoring in MLS Cup, but has played just under half of his minutes total from last year. I will investigate his performance below.

The numbers on the pizza plot represents the percentile rank of Yeboah compared to other FBs in MLS. These numbers indicate that Yeboah is an excellent attacking full back, but his usage rate in the attacking third dropped this season, perhaps due to a change in tactics for the Crew or the rise of Max Arfsten and mid-season signing DeJuan Jones. While Yeboah’s overall passing percentage is quite high, he ranks poorly among FBs with completing passes in the defensive third of the Crew and is not a player that should be heavily relied upon through the buildup phase. Defensively, Yeboah’s metrics have decreased this season and while much of a player’s defensive ability is based on their ability to read the game off-ball, his decrease is noticeable especially pairing that with his fouling, which is a metric that takes into account drawing and committing fouls. These decreases have contributed to Yeboah’s overall goals added, a composite metric produced by ASA, plummeting and suggest a reason for Yeboah’s move to new expansion side San Diego FC. He’s already proved he can be a great attacking fullback in this league, but the questions around his defensive ability and buildup play have likely led to his departure from the Crew.

Hinestroza is a young player that the Crew acquired in the winter transfer window last season (2024), who played just 350 minutes this season. The Crew have recognized this and loaned him out in July to Atletico Nacional in the top tier of Columbian soccer. Despite the underperformance of these three players, the Crew still hold the highest predicted salary total in MLS, reflecting their strong squad balance and supporting their status as the #1 rated team in CONCACAF.

The two different directions that Miami and Columbus have gone speaks to the competitive balance within MLS and shows there are different approaches to building a successful team.

3) The Red Bulls, LAFC, Revolution, and Chicago Fire Cluster?

One of the fascinating aspects of MLS is that the runner-up to the MLS Cup and the team with the third-highest points total in the league can find themselves in the same cluster as the second and third worst teams in the league—not just in terms of spending but also in underperforming relative to their salary cap.

Chicago Fire:

Chicago has seen only a handful of players outperform their contracts, and even those have done so by narrow margins. Meanwhile, the club has invested in big contracts for players like Andrew Gutman, Chris Mueller, and Arnaud Souquet, all of whom have significantly underperformed relative to their deals.

New York Red Bulls:

Red Bulls is similar to Chicago in that only a handful of their players have outperformed their contracts, and those who did have done so by slim margins. However, the key difference lies in underperformance: only four Red Bulls players have underperformed their contracts by more than $150,000, compared to seven on the Fire. This highlights the greater squad depth and overall quality that the Red Bulls possess, which has been a significant factor in their success in the table and the playoffs. Note: Andrés Reyes, the most underperforming player for the Red Bulls this season, was just transferred to expansion side San Diego FC. Tolkin is also interesting, his underperformance probably speaks to the weaknesses with my model, but that’s something that I need to investigate further.

New England Revolution:

The Revolution have allocated significant spending on center backs, with Andrew Farrell (31) earning $680,000, Dave Romney (30) also at $680,000, and Jonathan Mensah (33) at $450,000. Unfortunately, all three players have underperformed, collectively costing the Revolution over $1,800,000 of their salary budget. It's likely the team will look to offload some of these salaries, particularly Farrell, who my model values at $170,000—over $500,000 less than his actual salary, making this the largest discrepancy among all players in the league this season.

It’s not all bad news for the Revolution, as their youngsters like Peyton Miller (16), Noel Buck (18), and Esmir Bajraktarevic (18), have been standout overperformers and offer promise for the team’s future. At the time of writing this, Bajraktarevic was just sold to PSV for a deal worth up to $6M to make room for Leo Campana, who this season had an underperformance of $295,000.

LAFC:

LAFC has spent their money on veterans wisely, with their two most overperforming players being Kei Kamara (39 years old) and Maxime Chanot (34 years old). Looking at their most underperforming players, it seems that LAFC has an overload of wide players, with Omar Campos, Cristian Olivera, and David Martinez struggling for minutes despite earning over $500,000 each.

Omar Campos is particularly notable, with a salary discrepancy of over $450,000. If he fails to secure a role in the side next season, a loan move seems likely. On the other hand, if Campos impresses Cherundolo, it could pave the way for an in-league transfer for Ryan Hollingshead. Hollingshead, now 32, has underperformed his high expected salary this season and may be a candidate for a move as LAFC looks to refine their roster.

Conclusion

Thank you for reading! I really enjoyed doing some in-depth team analysis based on the model that I built and creating visualizations to summarize and support my findings. If you are interested in my work, check out my GitHub where I’ve shared various projects, models, and visualizations. Also, feel free to connect with me on LinkedIn or Twitter—I’d love to chat. See you next time!